Oscars Predictions
& some other thoughts on the top-line categories
With the 98th Academy Awards just around the corner, I’m happy to report- “We are sooooo back.” A really strong showing for popular cinema for the first time in many years, and we actually have a race! I know this is down to the wire with the ceremony tomorrow, but I thought better late than never.
A brief disclaimer, I’ve seen all of the nominations for Best Picture and Best International Feature and most of the films nominated in the acting categories, with the exception of Song Sung Blues (sorry Kate, and I know some of you want my head on a pike for this.) I will list my picks for shorts/ docs/ craft categories at the end- these picks are based on prognosticators, the cultural conversation and my gut- but I have not seen all of them- so fair warning.
Also, if you are going to use this information to place bet on Polymarket or Kalshi, please leave me the fuck out of it.
Overall, we have a year where few categories are sure-things, but I think there are two distinct versions of outcomes for Oscars night. These determine which film will win Best Picture. Working backwards, I’ve taken the slightly more optimistic approach.
Key:
Will Win
Should Win
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
_
Timmy will lose, but despite his recent cancellation, which only happened on the last day of academy voting- it’s more a symptom of the overall issue with the campaign he ran itself, rather than reason for his demise. It’s annoying we have to talk about Timmy first, rather than focusing on the success of Michael B. Jordan’s performances. Jordan does give the best performances in the category (save for Wagner Moura.) He’s playing two characters, “Parent Trap” style, in a wildly entertaining, original story and is well overdue for his recognition. His body of work speaks for itself.
There’s a lot I can say about “Marty Supreme,” Timmy’s clearly engaging in a level of Method Acting (watch this clip where Kristen Stewart absolutely drags The Method) and it really bit him in the ass. I also think Mr. Safdie has a lot to answer to, I’ll save my rant, but “portrayal isn’t endorsement” arguments are getting really lazy and I think he should be ashamed of himself for casting Kevin O’Leary.
That said, Michael B. Jordan- we’re all pulling for you!
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle after Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle after Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
_
I would like nothing more but to see with Delroy Lindo or Stellan Skarsgård walk away with an award tomorrow night. Sadly, while most of Hollywood doesn’t like Penn as a person, they do respect him.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
_
This is basically the only lock, it’s very unlikely to be anyone but Buckley. While she’s not an actress I favor often (she’s good in “Judy,”) I can’t deny she does an exquisite job in “Hamnet.” That said, Rose Byrne IS the movie and we will likely look back on this in 5-10 years and say “what were they thinking?!”
Renate Reinsve also proves to be the Meryl Streep of our generation, but she will get her recognition soon I think.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle after Another
_
Well deserved, and important that a horror performance gets its due. Big fan of all these actresses, and they will all be Oscar winners one day.
Casting
Nina Gold, Hamnet
Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle after Another
Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
Francine Maisler, Sinners
_
The “Sinners” train keeps on rolling, and yes the casting was phenomenal. However, it’s important we differentiate between the “Outstanding Performance by a Cast…” at the Actor Award, which awards the collective performance of all the actors in a film. While “Casting” for the Academy rewards the act of cast selection and continuity between script and performance. No film does that better than “The Secret Agent”- which has some steam and could be an upset here or in International Feature. As my favorite film critic Amanda Dobbins always says- “never count out Brazil.”
Cinematography
Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
Michael Bauman, One Battle after Another
Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
_
Congrats Michael Bauman, you earned it. Shout out “Trains Dreams” though, caught up with it last week and I like it a lot more than I was expecting. Stunning but traditional cinematography.
Directing
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
_
He can have it, PTA can have it. That’s how I feel about this one. Not my choice but sure.
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
_
“Sentimental Value” was my personal favorite film of 2025, and with 4 acting nominations, snagging a Best Director and Best Editing nomination, from a numbers and odds standpoint it’s likely to get one win here. I also acknowledge I’m coming in with a bias. My top films the last few years include, “C’mon C’mon” (2021,) “Aftersun” (2022,) “Past Lives” (2023,) “Janet Planet” (2024,) and now “Sentimental Value” (2025)- which 4/5 explore complicated parent/ child relationships, 3 of which specifically about dads. The reality of my own experiences is not lost on me. I got it. Therapy is expensive.
That said, Brazil is still in the mix. I am also happy to see “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” a film I haven’t talked a lot about this year, to get some recognition. It’s incredibly powerful and important, and honestly not easy to recover from. Knowing the academy’s response, I do think it’s unlikely to have an impact here but I’m grateful that it was nominated. Also big shout out to Sirāt, very divisive but it really stayed with me.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia
Screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle after Another
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
_
From this list nominees, there’s no question OBAA is the best bet.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon
Written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners
Written by Ryan Coogler
_
Ryan deserve the win, I can’t argue with that… but personally, “Sentimental Value” is the best written script of this year.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
_
It’s funny because this Best Picture award almost feels like a formality at this point.
The rest-
Editing: One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen
Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire & Ash
Original Score: Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
Sound: F1
Production Design: Frankenstein
Makeup & Hairstyling: Frankenstein
Costume Design: Sinner
Original Song: Golden, KPop Demon Hunters
Animated Short: Butterfly
Live Actions Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Documentary Short: All The Empty Rooms
xx
Love to see this !!! I’m so with you re: sentimental value—my fav film of the year. And I love the woulding vs. shoulding in this! We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow, but I think Timmy will win it…though I want Michael to!
Timmy still has a shot but gotta be optimistic! Hah